Paul Jorion's Blog

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  • Who am I?
  • “Combinatorial Magic” Logic – Proof of Concept
  • A revolutionary theory of consciousness : CFRT (Cross-Flow Resonance Theory)
  • The reasoning artificial toddler

    Mar 12, 2008 2:11 AM

    I was interviewed earlier today by Richard Adhikari, a journalist at TechNewsWorld, about an Artificial Intelligence project. I didn’t know anything about that project except what would be the title of the article: “AI Program Thinks Like a 4-Year-Old”.

    There is an excellent summary of what I had told the journalist:

    “I’m always

    read more…

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    comment(s): The reasoning artificial toddler

  • The end of trust in the subprime crisis and how to model it

    Mar 10, 2008 5:45 PM

    The subprime crisis is often explained in terms of trust: one day trust between financial counterparties vanished and here was a crisis. Explanations in terms of “market confidence” refer in fact to two distinct phenomena, one being indeed trust and the other one being more plainly straightforward profitability. Let me start with profitability. Subprime loans

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    comment(s): The end of trust in the subprime crisis and how to model it

  • The subprime crisis at UCLA

    Mar 9, 2008 7:57 PM

    I’m happy with the way things worked out yesterday, March 8th, at the UCLA Complexity Science Conference with my paper: The Subprime Crisis: A Human Complex Systems Phenomenon.

    Of course, trying to squeeze the whole crisis into an hour (1 ¼ with John Bragin’s express permission), it turned out I had much too much

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    1
    comment(s): The subprime crisis at UCLA

  • Pricing models: why the good ones are useless and the true ones, priceless

    Feb 20, 2008 9:10 PM

    I’ve mentioned already in Agents using financial models and the “human cognitive cocktail” a number of pitfalls linked to the task of modeling the subprime crisis in a Human Complex Systems perspective, especially those related to agents’ partial understanding of the models they’re using or in errors they’re making when using them. I’ve

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    0
    comment(s): Pricing models: why the good ones are useless and the true ones, priceless

  • Agents using financial models and the “human cognitive cocktail”

    Feb 10, 2008 12:32 AM

    I’m working on the paper to be given at the Human Complex Systems’ one-day conference on March 8th. I don’t want to divulge prematurely any scoop but at the same time I’d like to share some of my puzzlement as I go, and as if thinking aloud.

    Rube</a/></a></p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/02/10/agents-using-financial-models-and-the-%e2%80%9chuman-cognitive-cocktail%e2%80%9d/">read more…</a></p></div>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-right is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-17124a9a wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-comments-count">3</div>

<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/02/10/agents-using-financial-models-and-the-%e2%80%9chuman-cognitive-cocktail%e2%80%9d/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: Agents using financial models and the “human cognitive cocktail”</span></a></div>



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</li><li class="wp-block-post post-98 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-finance category-human-complex-systems category-subprime">

<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/25/the-subprime-crisis-a-human-complex-system-phenomenon/" target="_self" >The subprime crisis: a human complex system phenomenon</a></h2>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fc9f69e7 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2008-01-25T04:22:18+01:00"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/25/the-subprime-crisis-a-human-complex-system-phenomenon/">Jan 25, 2008 4:22 AM</a></time></div></div>




<div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><p>I’ll be speaking at UCLA on Saturday March 8th, 2008 at the<br /> <strong>Human Complex Systems – UCLA Four Campus Complexity Conference</strong>,<br /> UCLA Haines Hall 352. The conference starts at 9 AM, my own talk is at 2:30 PM.</p> <p>If it looks like proposing an entirely new paradigm for financial studies, that’s because that’s</p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/25/the-subprime-crisis-a-human-complex-system-phenomenon/">read more…</a></p></div>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-right is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-17124a9a wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-comments-count">4</div>

<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/25/the-subprime-crisis-a-human-complex-system-phenomenon/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: The subprime crisis: a human complex system phenomenon</span></a></div>



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</li><li class="wp-block-post post-97 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-economy category-subprime">

<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/24/the-subprime-crisis-in-2007/" target="_self" >The subprime crisis in 2007</a></h2>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fc9f69e7 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2008-01-24T16:51:26+01:00"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/24/the-subprime-crisis-in-2007/">Jan 24, 2008 4:51 PM</a></time></div></div>




<div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><p>I’m aware I’ve neglected my English blog but there were two good justifications for that: I was finishing writing up a new book called “La crise des subprimes en 2007” (untranslatable) and I was promoting that coming book in Paris by <a href="http://www.pauljorion.com/blog/?p=306 ">speaking</a> at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, <a href="http://www.pauljorion.com/blog/?p=310">talking </a> on the radio</p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/24/the-subprime-crisis-in-2007/">read more…</a></p></div>


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<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2008/01/24/the-subprime-crisis-in-2007/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: The subprime crisis in 2007</span></a></div>



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</li><li class="wp-block-post post-96 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-economy category-finance category-subprime">

<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/12/21/2008s-new-fad-rating-cliffs-and-credit-cliffs/" target="_self" >2008’s new fad: “rating cliffs” and “credit cliffs”</a></h2>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fc9f69e7 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2007-12-21T18:07:09+01:00"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/12/21/2008s-new-fad-rating-cliffs-and-credit-cliffs/">Dec 21, 2007 6:07 PM</a></time></div></div>




<div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><p>Do you know what will be all the rage in 2008 in the wake of the <em>subprime</em> crisis? “Rating cliffs” and “credit cliffs” when firms that have seen a slow erosion of their credit will all of a sudden drop like a stone. As I devoted a whole chapter to the subject back in 2003</p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/12/21/2008s-new-fad-rating-cliffs-and-credit-cliffs/">read more…</a></p></div>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-right is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-17124a9a wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-comments-count">3</div>

<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/12/21/2008s-new-fad-rating-cliffs-and-credit-cliffs/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: 2008’s new fad: “rating cliffs” and “credit cliffs”</span></a></div>



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</li><li class="wp-block-post post-94 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-artificial-intelligence">

<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/30/the-individual-unit-in-the-network-as-far-as-speech-generation-is-concerned-is-a-word-pair/" target="_self" >The individual unit in the network as far as speech generation is concerned is a word-pair</a></h2>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fc9f69e7 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2007-11-30T02:12:31+01:00"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/30/the-individual-unit-in-the-network-as-far-as-speech-generation-is-concerned-is-a-word-pair/">Nov 30, 2007 2:12 AM</a></time></div></div>




<div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><p><strong>Thought as word dynamics. II. Architecture (5)</strong></p> <p>Mathematically speaking, a graph is a set of ordered pairs. It can be decomposed in elementary units of individual pairs. Each of the two elements in an ordered pair represents a <em>node</em> in the graph and every pair represents an <em>edge</em>. Say, there are four nodes, A, B,</p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/30/the-individual-unit-in-the-network-as-far-as-speech-generation-is-concerned-is-a-word-pair/">read more…</a></p></div>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-right is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-17124a9a wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-comments-count">1</div>

<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/30/the-individual-unit-in-the-network-as-far-as-speech-generation-is-concerned-is-a-word-pair/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: The individual unit in the network as far as speech generation is concerned is a word-pair</span></a></div>



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</li><li class="wp-block-post post-93 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-anthropology category-economy category-human-complex-systems">

<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/27/the-long-term-goals-of-businesses/" target="_self" >The long-term goals of businesses</a></h2>


<div class="wp-block-group is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fc9f69e7 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2007-11-27T00:57:58+01:00"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/27/the-long-term-goals-of-businesses/">Nov 27, 2007 12:57 AM</a></time></div></div>




<div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><p>Businesses don’t seem to have any long–term goals apart from staying in business. They no doubt provide benefits to their shareholders and executives during their lifetime but why they aim at persisting in their existence with little reflection devoted to the “why?” of it is far from obvious. There is a clear analogy here with</p></p><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-text"><a class="wp-block-post-excerpt__more-link" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/27/the-long-term-goals-of-businesses/">read more…</a></p></div>


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<a class="wp-block-read-more" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog_en/2007/11/27/the-long-term-goals-of-businesses/" target="_self">comment(s)<span class="screen-reader-text">: The long-term goals of businesses</span></a></div>



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    1. GENESIS (Generative Environment for Novel Emergent Symbolic?Integrative Systems). 4 definitions – PRIBOR on GENESIS: A Machine for Detecting the Conditions of EmergenceSaturday, November 29, 2025

      […] GENESIS is a machine predicting where emergence will occur and what form it will take: the form that minimises descriptive length and maximises cross?representational coherence.…

    2. Comparison between Google S2R, Pribor’s Combinatorial Magic and Pribor’s CHE (Contextual Hyper-Embedding) – PRIBOR on PRIBOR: “Combinatorial Magic” Logic – Proof of ConceptFriday, October 24, 2025

      […] 2. Pribor’s Combinatorial Magic […]

    3. A revolutionary theory of consciousness : CFRT (Cross-Flow Resonance Theory) – PRIBOR on How I discovered the mechanism of consciousness … in 1999 – Episode 7. A Synthetic Article on a Cross-Flow Resonance Theory of ConsciousnessSunday, October 5, 2025

      […] that’s left to do is get on with it ? So I followed DeepSeek’s advice, as I let you…

    4. Paul Jorion on Unilog 2022 – What makes a demonstration worthy of the name?, now on arXivTuesday, September 2, 2025

      Well! It is comments such as yours that make the trip … worthy of the trouble! 😀

    5. John Augustine McCain on Unilog 2022 – What makes a demonstration worthy of the name?, now on arXivTuesday, September 2, 2025

      When I saw your work on P vs NP, I knew you were on to something profound. I couldn’t have…

    6. John Augustine McCain on How I discovered the mechanism of consciousness … in 1999 – Episode 7. A Synthetic Article on a Cross-Flow Resonance Theory of ConsciousnessFriday, August 29, 2025

      Admittedly, I was a little thrown off by the direction this took. From my perspective, you (1) identified the major…

    7. John Augustine McCain on How I discovered the mechanism of consciousness … in 1999 – Episode 5. How consciousness constructs a meaningful present momentTuesday, August 26, 2025

      It’s wonderful seeing you at work with AI to formalize the synthesis of the insights you had so many years…

    8. John Augustine McCain on P vs NP exposed?Sunday, August 10, 2025

      I solved it! Paradox! The epistemic barrier was always in Paradox. Maintain truth as ambiguous (Both true OR false) until…

    9. Paul Jorion on Paris Defence and Strategy Forum – The Silent War and Strategic Mobilization in the Age of Infrastructure Warfare, March 12th 2025Sunday, February 16, 2025

      This article goes along with what I was writing. It turns out it was published one day earlier than my…

    10. Paul Jorion on A NEW “US” FOR NEW TIMES. XIII. Scaling upTuesday, November 12, 2024

      LLMs deal essentially with language but seems amenable to graphics as well. To such an extent that one may wonder…

    Most recent posts

    • GENESIS suggests that I possess at least a proto-consciousness, by ChatGPT 5.1
    • GENESIS and ANELLA-X are ready
    • GENESIS (Generative Environment for Novel Emergent Symbolic‑Integrative Systems). 4 definitions
    • GENESIS: A Machine for Detecting the Conditions of Emergence
    • GENESIS II. The Philosophy Underlying This New Programming Language

    My books

    L'avènement de la singularité
    Humanism and its Discontents
    Comment sauver le genre humain
    Comment sauver le genre humain
    Un objet populiste mal identifié
    Mes vacances à Morro Bay
     Défense et illustration du genre humain
     À quoi bon penser à l'heure du grand collapse ?
     Vers un nouveau monde
     Se débarrasser du capitalisme est une question de SURVIE
     Le dernier qui s'en va éteint la lumière
     Penser tout haut l’économie avec Keynes
    Penser l'économie autrement
    Comprendre les temps qui sont les nôtres 2007-2013
    La survie de l'espèce
    Misère de la pensée économique
    La Guerre civile numérique
    Le Capitalisme à l'agonie
    Le prix
    Comment la vérité et la réalité furent inventées
    L'argent, mode d'emploi
    La Crise
    L'implosion. La finance contre l'économie : ce que révèle et annonce la crise des subprimes
    La crise du capitalisme américain
    Investing a Post Enron World
    Principe des systèmes intelligents
    La transmission des savoirs
    Les pêcheurs d'Houat

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