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LOTS OF FROTH, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
A brand new development in the history of the ECB has occurred: leaks yesterday revealed the broad outlines of its new sovereign debt securities’ purchase programme. One cannot help thinking that it was necessary to prepare the ground in advance, with the ECB decisions…
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SURRENDER, YOU ARE SURROUNDED!, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
It is not just Italy and Spain causing problems, after the decisions taken during the last summit suffered a setback, in view of the spectacle of great confusion and nervousness we have witnessed with regard to the joint press release – which wasn’t one…
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SPAIN : THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENTS SOON
Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Exceeding 6% on 10 year debt is already dangerous. According to the terms of the balanced budget rule, this signifies that a nation will require growth of around the same amount, whereas in fact Spain has registered a negative growth since the beginning of the…
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QUIET ON THE SET, AND… INACTION!, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Events are moving fast. We were expecting it of Greece, but Spain is overtaking it. Yesterday evening, a human tidal wave invaded Spanish town streets, which these days have become virtually permanent places of mini-demonstrations at midday or after work. Today, at the very…
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FIRST IT WAS THE AGENCIES, NOW ITS THE FORECASTERS’ FAULT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
“I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off” replied David Cameron, the British Prime-Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. He continued, “this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it…
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THE RESULT OF UNRAVELLING A BALL OF WOOL… FROM THE WRONG END, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
François Hollande has confirmed that the Government is going to propose for adoption an organic law (which a simple law cannot undo) in order to have the balanced budget rule adopted, on the advantageous pretext that it is provisional. There have been many occasions…
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WELL SPOTTED, BRAVO!, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
As already highlighted the Spanish government is already benefitting from a de facto rescue plan under another name. To save appearances, the new austerity measures put forward for vote in parliament have not been the object of a memorandum jointly signed with those providing…
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WHEN WE’RE NOT MOVING FORWARDS WE’RE GOING BACKWARDS…, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
The European Finance Ministers managed during the course of the night to finalize a minimal agreement, which needs, as usual, to be examined in detail due to its grey areas. They put together a set of nominations to the ECB and the ESM based…
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GUILTY PARTIES WANTED !, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
In accordance with the predictable script, the bond market is under pressure again. The cost of servicing Spanish and Italian debt has continued to increase as their financing plans move forward in little measured steps. The effect of all this is to place an…
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TREASURE HUNT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Following the clues for the next bail-out of the Spanish banks is proving to be a veritable treasure hunt. To participate, follow the guide!
Initially, the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) is going to borrow funds on the markets, using the member states guarantees,…
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SPAIN: BOND MARKET THIS THURSDAY 21St JUNE
Spain managed to borrow 2.22 billion Euros this morning. It was hoping to raise 7.7 billion. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this was “thanks to demand seen overwhelmingly coming from domestic banks”.
The coupon obtained by lenders for 2 years was 4.706% (compared with 2.069% on the 1st March); over…
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THE SPANISH RISK PREMIUM
There were two bond issues today, one in Spain, the other in Denmark, which allow us to carry out an interesting little calculation of the risk premium required of Spain when it borrows on the capital markets.
A short while ago the Spanish…
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Le Vif/L’Express, « There is ALWAYS an alternative », June 22, 2012
This is an exclusive preview – in English! – of my column which will be published in the Belgian weekly Le Vif/L’Express this coming Thursday
The phenomenon is the way in which things manifest themselves to us, and this can be real – either with things appearing as they really are; or it can be…
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FRANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
France and the future of Europe
The fact that Spain seems to have lost all access to the capital markets for the foreseeable future, seeming thus, at first glance, to condemn the entire existence of the Eurozone, was headline news on Paul Jorion’s blog yesterday. Firstly, as discussed in the article ironically entitled “
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A BIG BANG, OR NOTHING , by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
With the G20 meeting being held in Mexico at the start of the week, our perspective will find itself altered, falsely accustomed as we are to only seeing the debt crisis from a European angle. On the 18th and 19th June, the greats of…
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AND NOW?
14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt?
True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped…
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SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS
12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when…
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HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO
How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro
12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at…
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WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is…