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NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT ! , by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
The G20 in Los Cabos seemed like a preparatory meeting for the Summit of the Heads of State and European Governments! This seems to highlight the fact that they no longer know what to do, and are running round like headless chicken.
The same…
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THE SPANISH RISK PREMIUM
There were two bond issues today, one in Spain, the other in Denmark, which allow us to carry out an interesting little calculation of the risk premium required of Spain when it borrows on the capital markets.
A short while ago the Spanish…
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Le Vif/L’Express, « There is ALWAYS an alternative », June 22, 2012
This is an exclusive preview – in English! – of my column which will be published in the Belgian weekly Le Vif/L’Express this coming Thursday
The phenomenon is the way in which things manifest themselves to us, and this can be real – either with things appearing as they really are; or it can be…
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FRANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
France and the future of Europe
The fact that Spain seems to have lost all access to the capital markets for the foreseeable future, seeming thus, at first glance, to condemn the entire existence of the Eurozone, was headline news on Paul Jorion’s blog yesterday. Firstly, as discussed in the article ironically entitled “
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THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN SPANISH DEBT: LIVE
In my article this morning ‘The Greeks have made the right choice’ I indicated that:
…the 10 year rate for Spanish bonds was 6.82% at opening time this morning and now stands at 7.13%. (10.25 AM).
The dramatic progression has continued: it is 2.40 PM and the rate is now at 7.22%
The correct…
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“THE GREEKS HAVE MADE THE RIGHT CHOICE!”
“The Greeks have made the right choice!”
Oh blast, the markets see it differently: the 10 year Spanish rate was at 6.82% at opening this morning and now it’s at 7.25% (3:30 PM). Unheard of, one has to say. Damned markets!
Voting for the Troïka method – it was pretty obvious – was voting…
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A BIG BANG, OR NOTHING , by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
With the G20 meeting being held in Mexico at the start of the week, our perspective will find itself altered, falsely accustomed as we are to only seeing the debt crisis from a European angle. On the 18th and 19th June, the greats of…
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STEPS TOO STEEP TO CLIMB, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
François Hollande is on the offensive and Angela Merkel firmly on the defensive, with both setting their sights on a compromise in the summit at the end of June (a compromise which remains inconceivable for the moment). How is it viewed by Paris, with…
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AND NOW?
14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt?
True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped…
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NOW THE CHAINS ARE GIVING WAY, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
The chorus of voices is becoming increasingly strident and events are moving very fast: the now inevitable Spanish request to benefit from a rescue package; plus the impending recognition of the failure of the second Greek plan, followed by the negotiation of a third…
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SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS
12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when…
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HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO
How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro
12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion
And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at…
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THE GOLDEN TOUCH, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell and Bernard Bouvet
In spite of the promise of a hundred billion Euros which has been brought to the table, the markets are still not convinced, and it didn’t take them long to react. By late afternoon, Spanish borrowing rates were edging up again,…
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WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is…
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THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SPANISH BANKING BAIL-OUT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
Some important details are still lacking with regard to the Spanish banking bailout plan: its final amount, which is going to depend on the results of the audit commissioned by the government; its rate, which we will be coming back to; and the stabilizing…
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THE INSURERS WILL NOT BE LEFT UNSCATHED, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
In the United States, bad news often arrives via the Congressional Budget office (CBO). Reputed for its analyses, this non-partisan Congressional body has just produced a forward-looking report on American debt. According to the CBO, if the tax cuts are renewed and public spending…